August 12, 2005

Many 'variables' add up to average Indiana crop, experts say

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. - Fall harvest is not far away, and variability is the buzzword for Indiana's corn and soybean crops.

Yields are likely to be good in some places and not so good in others, Purdue University and state agricultural experts predicted today (Friday, Aug. 12) during a morning briefing at the Indiana State Fair.

Indiana farmers are projected to produce 819.3 million bushels of corn, at an average of 145 bushels per acre. State soybean production is estimated at 251.6 million bushels, averaging 46 bushels an acre. Those numbers are down from the production records Hoosier farmers posted in 2004, when the average corn yield was 168 bushels per acre and the average soybean yield was 52 bushels an acre.

The 2005 estimates provided in the briefing coincided with the release of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's monthly crop production report. Speakers at the state fair event included Greg Preston, director of the Purdue-based Indiana Agricultural Statistics Service (IASS); Chris Hurt, Purdue agricultural economist; Lt. Gov. Becky Skillman; and Andy Miller, director of the Indiana State Department of Agriculture.

"The 2005 crop is going to be highly variable, both within and between fields," Preston said.

Weather conditions played a pivotal role in turning what was once a promising crop season into one that could be no better than average for many farmers, Preston said. Excellent spring planting conditions were followed by a cool, wet May that stunted crop development. By July, hot, dry conditions set in, causing crop stress. Spotty rains revived some crops but failed to fall on others.

"Our dry weather and continued 90-plus degree temperatures lowered the crop condition ratings," Preston said.

Corn and soybean yields are likely to be highest in Indiana's central region, with average corn yield projected at 158 bushels per acre and soybean yields averaging 50 bushels per acre, Preston said. The lowest average corn yields are projected for southeast Indiana, at 124 bushels per acre. South-central Indiana soybean yields are expected to be the lowest statewide, at 40 bushels per acre.

The IASS crop estimates are based on Aug. 1 field conditions.

Although Indiana farmers aren't likely to duplicate last year's crop production records, the news could have been worse for the 2005 crop, Hurt said.

"Overall, I think these are strong numbers for Indiana," Hurt said. "As you start to think about such things as farm income, we thought that if these numbers were lower, then farm incomes would have been lower."

In 2004 net farm income was a record $1.6 billion in Indiana, about $500 million higher than the state's 10-year average.

"This year we're probably looking at $900 million to $1 billion. That could be 10 percent to 20 percent off the average income. But in the last 10 years we can look at some short income years of $200 million to $300 million. So we do have to breathe a sigh of relief this year.

"Most producers, if they knew they were going to have a good year and an average year, would say it's nice to have the good one first."

Hurt predicted grain markets would react bearishly to today's estimates. He projected corn prices would be off 6-8 cents a bushel, with soybean prices down 8-10 cents a bushel.

Skillman and Miller said the state's new agriculture department stands ready to help farmers in crop-distressed areas.

"We take these crop reports very seriously," Skillman said. "And I've known from my travels across the state that there could be some problems."

"As a department of agriculture, we want to be active and help those producers who've had a tough year," Miller said. "We'll provide assistance if and when it becomes available."

State agriculture officials said they will pay special attention to counties along the western third of Indiana and in the state's southeast corner - all areas that experienced near-drought conditions.

Nationally, the USDA forecasted 2005 U.S. corn production at 10.3 billion bushels, at an average yield of 139.2 bushels per acre - down from the record 11.8 billion bushels and 160.4 bushels per acre in 2004. U.S. soybean production is estimated at 2.79 billion bushels, at an average yield of 38.7 bushels per acre. Should the projection hold true, soybean production would slip 11 percent and average yield 3.8 bushels per acre from 2004 records.

The IASS state crop report is available online. To read the USDA crop production report go online.

Writer: Steve Leer, (765) 494-8415, sleer@purdue.edu

Sources: Greg Preston, (765) 494-8371, gregory_preston@nass.usda.gov

Chris Hurt, (765) 494-4273, hurtc@purdue.edu

Ag Communications: (765) 494-2722;
Beth Forbes, forbes@purdue.edu
Agriculture News Page

Related Web site:
Purdue Department of Agricultural Economics

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